2017 Motion Picture Awards

Discussion in 'Movies' started by Mike Kelly, Nov 10, 2017.

  1. Mike Kelly

    Mike Kelly Active Member

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    The 2017 movie awards season will begin on Tuesday, November 28, with the National Board of Review's Awards. Here is a preliminary list of likely contenders in the six major film categories. As always, there are sure to be unexpected surprises. I'll update this thread as the awards are announced. Pinning it would help, if you feel it is of interest. Thanks.

    Best Picture Contenders
    Call Me by Your Name
    Darkest Hour
    Downsizing
    Dunkirk
    Florida Project, The
    Get Out
    Lady Bird
    Post, The
    Shape of Water, The
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Best Director Contenders
    Guilermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
    Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
    Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
    Steven Spielberg, The Post

    Best Actor Contenders
    Timothy Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
    Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
    Tom Hanks, The Post
    Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

    Best Actress Contenders
    Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
    Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Margot Robbie, I, Tonia
    Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird
    Meryl Streep, The Post

    Best Supporting Actor Contenders
    Willem Defoe, The Florida Project
    Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
    Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water
    Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me by Your Name

    Best Supporting Actress Contenders
    Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
    Allison Janney, I, Tonya
    Melissa Leo, Novitiate
    Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
    Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

    The early front runners are in BOLD
     
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  2. CJ

    CJ Bronze Member Admin War Zone Member Top Poster

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    HEY! Welcome back! Thank you, as always, for contributing here... and I will absolutely pin this thread.
     
  3. Carl V

    Carl V Well-Known Member Donor War Zone Member Top Poster

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    yes, thanks.
    quite a wide variety there
     
  4. Mike Kelly

    Mike Kelly Active Member

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    2017 Film Awards
    The below listed movies, directors and actors have received awards, nominations and/or runners up selections from noteworthy organizations that consider all eligible candidates. Award groups that only recognize specialized categories (e.g. The Independent Spirit Awards) are not included

    Wins are highlighted in RED and Nominations and/or Runners-Up in BLACK: Guild Nominees and Winners, plus Golden Globe (c = comedy category) and Critics Choice winners are in Parentheses. Academy Award Winners in Blue, Nominees in Bold.

    PICTURE
    Baby Driver (0/2)
    The Big Sick (0/7) (SAG Ensemble) (PGA)
    Blade Runner 2049 (0/3)
    Call Me By Your Name (
    1/22) (GG) (PGA) (BAFTA) (AA)
    Darkest Hour (0/4) (BAFTA) (AA)
    The Disaster Artist (0/5) (GG-c)
    Downsizing (0/1)
    Dunkirk (1/26) (GG) (PGA) (BAFTA) (DGA) (AA)
    The Florida Project (4/16)
    Get Out (13/27) (GG-c) (SAG Ensemble) (PGA) (DGA) (AA)
    A Ghost Story (1/3)
    God's Own Country (0/1)
    Good Time (0/1)
    The Greatest Showman (0/1) (GG-c)
    I, Tonya (0/4) (GG-c) (PGA)
    Lady Bird (
    10/28) (GG-c) (SAG Ensemble) (PGA) (DGA) (AA)
    Logan (0/3)
    Loveless (0/1)
    Molly's Game (0/1) (PGA)
    mother! (0/1)
    Mudbound (1/3) (SAG Ensemble)
    Phantom Thread (1/9) (AA)
    The Post (1/11) (GG) (PGA) (AA)
    The Shape of Water (7/29) (GG) (
    PGA) (BAFTA) (DGA) (CC) (AA)
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (5/29) (
    GG) (SAG Ensemble) (PGA) (BAFTA) (DGA) (AA)
    Wind River (0/1)
    Wonder Woman (0/2) (PGA)

    DIRECTOR
    Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (3/6) (AA)
    Sean Baker, The Florida Project (3/6)
    Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water (17/27) (GG) (BAFTA) (DGA) (CC) (AA)
    Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (8/23) (DGA) (AA)

    Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name (1/6) (BAFTA)
    David Lowery, A Ghost Story (0/1)
    Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (0/10) (GG) (BAFTA) (DGA)
    Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (8/27) (GG) (BAFTA) (DGA) (AA)
    Jordan Peele, Get Out (2/24) (DGA) (AA)
    Dee Rees, Mudbound (1/1)
    Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (0/1) (GG)
    Steven Spielberg, The Post (0/6) (GG)
    Denis Villenueve, Blade Runner 2049 (0/4) (BAFTA)
    Edgar Wright, Baby Driver (0/2)

    ACTOR
    Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (0/1) (BAFTA)
    Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (0/1) (GG-c)
    Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (
    9/27) (GG) (SAG) (BAFTA) (AA)
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (
    4/16) (GG) (BAFTA) (AA)
    Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver (0/1) (GG-c)
    James Franco, The Disaster Artist (3/26) (GG-c) (SAG)
    Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (0/2)
    Tom Hanks, The Post (1/5) (GG)
    Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (0/1) (GG-c)
    Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (4/21) (GG-c) (SAG) (BAFTA) (AA)
    James McAvoy, Split (
    1/2)
    Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (19/27) (GG) (SAG) (BAFTA) (CC) (AA)
    Robert Pattinson, Good Time (0/7)
    Andy Serkis, War For the Planet of the Apes (2/3)
    Harry Dean Stanton, Lucky (1/3)
    Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (0/3) (GG) (SAG) (AA)

    ACTRESS
    Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (0/3) (BAFTA)
    Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game (0/7) (GG)
    Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul (0/2) (GG-c) (SAG)
    Sally Hawkins, Maudie (1/2)
    Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (13/27) (GG) (SAG) (BAFTA) (AA)
    Vicki Krieps, Phantom Thread (0/2)
    Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (15/33) (GG) (SAG) (BAFTA) (CC) (AA)
    Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker (0/1) (GG-c)
    Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion (0/3)
    Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (0/1)
    Florence Pugh, Lady Macbeth (0/1)
    Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (10/27) (GG-c) (SAG) (BAFTA) (AA)
    Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (
    4/22) (GG-c) (SAG) (BAFTA) (AA)
    Kristen Stewart, Personal Shopper (0/2)
    Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (0/1) (GG-c)
    Meryl Streep, The Post (1/9) (GG) (AA)
    Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (0/1) (GG)

    SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (0/1) (SAG)
    Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (24/27) (GG) (SAG) (BAFTA) (AA)
    Hugh Grant, Paddington 2 ( 1/2) (BAFTA)
    Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name (0/14) (GG)
    Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (1/10) (SAG) (BAFTA) (AA)
    Ethan Hawke, Maudie (0/1)
    Oscar Isaac, Suburbicon (0/1)
    Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (1/16) (GG) (SAG) (AA)
    Doug Jones, The Shape of Water (0/1)
    Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer (0/2)
    Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (0/2)
    Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (0/4) (GG) (BAFTA) (AA)

    Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (16/32) (GG) (SAG) (BAFTA) (CC) (AA)
    Ray Romano, The Big Sick (0/1)
    Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (0/3)
    Patrick Stewart, Logan (0/7)
    Michael Stulhberg, Call Me by Your Name (0/16)

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (0/16) (GG) (SAG) (AA)
    Hong Chau, Downsizing (0/6) (GG) (SAG)
    Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (1/7)
    Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (0/22) (SAG)
    Allison Janney, I, Tonya (17/32) (GG) (SAG) (BAFTA) (CC) (AA)
    Dafne Keen, Logan (0/1)
    Catherine Keener, Get Out (0/1)
    Melissa Leo, Novitiate (0/2)
    Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (1/9) (BAFTA) (AA)
    Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (
    1/2)
    Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (24/27) (GG) (SAG) (BAFTA) (AA)
    Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (0/11) (GG) (BAFTA) (AA)
    Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (0/2) (BAFTA)
    Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (0/3)

    AWARD GROUP
    National Board of Review - Awards (11/28/17)
    New York Film Critics Circle - Awards (11/30/17)
    Los Angeles Film Critics - Awards and Runners-Up (12/03/17)
    Detroit Film Critics - Nominations (12/05/17), Winners (12/07/17)
    Broadcast Film Critics - Nominations (12/05/17), Winners (01/11/18)
    Washington DC Film Critics - Nominations (12/05/17), Winners (12/08/17)
    American Film Institute - Ten Best Films (12/07/17)
    San Francisco Film Critics - Nominations (12/08/17), Winners (12/10/17)
    Boston Online Film Critics - Awards (12/09/17)
    San Diego Film Critics - Nominations (12/09/17), Winners (12/11/17)
    Boston Film Critics - Awards and Runners-Up (12/10/17)
    Chicago Film Critics - Nominations (12/10/17), Winners (12/12/17)
    New York On Line Film Critics - Awards (12/10/17)
    Philadelphia Film Critics - Awards (12/10/17)
    Toronto Film Critics - Awards and Runners-Up (12/10/17)
    St. Louis Film Critics - Nominations (12/10/17), Winners (12/18/17)
    Hollywood Foreign Press (Golden Globes) - Nominations (12/11/17), Winners (01/07/18)
    Atlanta Film Critics - Awards (12/11/17)
    Seattle Film Critics - Nominations (12/11/17), Winners (12/19/17)
    Phoenix Film Critics - Nominations (12/11/17), Winners (12/20/17)
    Houston Film Critics - Nominations (12/12/17), Winners (01/06/18)
    Screen Actors Guild - Nominations (12/13/17), Winners (01/21/18)
    Dallas Area Film Critics - Awards (12/13/17)
    Vancouver Film Critics - Nominations (12/16/17, Winners (12/19/17)
    Online Film Critics - Nominations (12/18/17), Winners and Runners-Up (12/28/17)
    Kansas City Film Critics - Awards (12/18/17)
    Utah Film Critics - Awards and Runners-Up (12/18/17)
    Southeastern Film Critics - Awards and Runners-Up (12/19/17)
    Indiana Film Critics - Awards and Runners-Up (12/19/17)
    London Film Critics Circle - Nominations (12/19/17), Winners (01/29/18)
    Las Vegas Film Critics - Awards (12/19/17)
    Florida Film Critics - Nominations (12/21/17), Winners and Runners-Up (12/24/17)
    Nevada Film Critics - Awards (12/23/17)
    North Carolina Film Critics - Nominations (12/26/17), Winners (01/02/18)
    Oklahoma Film Critics - Awards and Runners-Up (01/02/18)
    Alliance of Women Film Journalists - Nominations (01/03/18), Winners (01/09/18)
    Austin Film Critics - Nominations (12/30/17), Winners (01/08/18)
    Producers Guild of America - Nominations (01/05/18), Winner (01/20/18)
    National Society of Film Critics - Awards and Runners-Up (01/06/18)
    Georgia Film Critics - Nominations (01/08/18), Winners (01/13/18)
    British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) - Nominations (01/09/18), Winners (02/18/18)
    Denver Film Critics - Nominations (01/09/18), Winners (01/18/18)
    Iowa Film Critics - Awards and Runners-Up (01/09/18)
    Directors Guild of America - Nominations (01/11/18), Winner (02/03/18)
    Online Film and Television Association - Nominations (1/21/18), Winners (02/18/18) I'm a voting member of this group.
    Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences - Nominations (01/23/18), Winners (03/04/18)
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2018
  5. Mike Kelly

    Mike Kelly Active Member

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    The previous post will be the on-going Awards results. I will edit the post as new awards are announced. The National Board of Review has continued its trend of mixing popular films with smaller critically acclaimed ones. I would be surprised to see Baby Driver, Logan and The Disaster Artist show up too often. Get Out however, should remain a strong contender throughout the season. It was interesting that the two films with critic embargoes, Phantom Thread and especially The Post scored well with the NBR. Up next is the New York Film Critics, who announce tomorrow 11/30/17
     
  6. Mike Kelly

    Mike Kelly Active Member

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    A quick recap before the "TV" groups (Broadcast Film Critics, AFI and Hollywood Foreign Press) flood us with their nominations. The three long established critics groups have spoken and it looks like there's a pretty wide spread in their selections especially for Directing and Actress. As for picture, three smaller films appear to have taken the lead: Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird and The Florida Project. The last mostly on the strength of Willem Dafoe, who won all three group supporting actor awards. As for the studio films, The Post jumped out with its NBR awards, but has been quiet since. The Shape of Water did well with L.A. Dunkirk has been quiet, as well as Gary Oldman and Darkest Hour. I suspect we'll start seeing this change with the more populist award groups announcing soon.
     
  7. Mike Kelly

    Mike Kelly Active Member

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    The flood of various state and city critics awards is now subsiding. Other than the National Society of Film Critics Awards on Jan. 06, 2018, it is now the Guilds turn to indicate the favorite production, directing and writing. The acting nominees have been announced by the Screen Actors Guild, which threw some curves possibly due to big hitters like The Post and Phantom Thread being ignored. It is speculated that this was due to their sending screeners to the members very late in the process. As with The Force Awakens, I expect the just released Last Jedi to do quite well in the technical categories but probably not contend for the major awards. It has gotten very good reviews so far, with possibly its length a sticking point.

    So, looking at the current standings, here are the leading candidates in five six categories: The points are simply a tally of nominations received or runners-up (1 point each) and wins (2 points each)

    Best Picture
    1. Get Out - 24 pts. (a popular film doing quite well so far)
    2. The Florida Project - 19 pts.
    3. Lady Bird - 19 pts.
    4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 17 (my favorite of those I've seen)
    5. Call Me By Your Name - 13 pts.
    5. Dunkirk - 13 pts.
    5. The Shape of Water - 13 pts.
    8. The Post - 9 pts.

    Actor
    1. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name - 23 pts.
    2. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour - 19 pts.
    3. James Franco, The Disaster Artist - 16 pts.
    4. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread - 12 pts.
    4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out - 12 pts.

    Actress
    1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards... - 23 pts.
    2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water - 22 pts.
    3. Margot Robbie, I, Tanya - 19 pts.
    3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird - 19 pts.
    5. Meryl Streep, The Post - 8 pts.

    Supporting Actor
    1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project - 36 pts.
    2. Sam Rockwell, three Billboards... - 22 pts.
    3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water - 10 pts.
    4. Michael Stuhlberg, Call M By Your Name - 8 pts.
    5. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name - 7 pts.

    Supporting Actress
    1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird - 34 pts.
    2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya - 24 pts.
    3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick - 13 pts.
    4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound - 8 pts.
    5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water - 7 pts


    Lots of close races, with smaller independent films doing very well. Again, the Guilds may let the bigger studio films put some pressure on them.
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2017
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  8. Mike Kelly

    Mike Kelly Active Member

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    Post deleted
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2018
  9. Mike Kelly

    Mike Kelly Active Member

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    Here are my nomination predictions before they come out tomorrow.

    Best Picture
    1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    2. Lady Bird
    3. Get Out
    4. The Shape of Water
    5. Dunkirk
    6. Call Me By Your Name
    7. The Florida Project - X - Phantom Thread
    8. The Post
    9. I, Tonya - X - Darkest Hour
    10. The Big Sick - X - Only 9 Nominees

    Best Director
    1. Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
    2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
    3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
    4. Jordan Peele, Get Out
    5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - X - P. T. Anderson, Phantom Thread
    Best Actor
    1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
    2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
    3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
    4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist - X Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
    5. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

    Best Actress
    1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
    3. Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird
    4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
    5. Meryl Streep, The Post

    Best Supporting Actor
    1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
    3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
    4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name - X - Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

    Best Supporting Actress
    1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
    2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
    3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick - X - Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
    4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
    5. Hong Chau, Downsizing - X - Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

    I think the fourth and fifth slots for the Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress categories are the most vulnerable. We shall see.

    Edited to show misses and replacements.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2018
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  10. CJ

    CJ Bronze Member Admin War Zone Member Top Poster

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    Thanks for posting Mike!
     
  11. Mike Kelly

    Mike Kelly Active Member

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    I edited my nomination post above to show the seven misses and the replacement nominees. 27 out of 34 is an average score by my standards. Phantom Thread, which was the last film I saw before nomination announcements, accounted for three misses alone. I was most disappointed that The Florida Project only received one nomination (for Willem Dafoe). It is a small film that had an uphill battle. My #1 film of the year, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, received 7 nominations, a good tally, but unfortunately it didn't get a nomination for its director. This will probably mean it won't win Best Picture. Since 1932 only three movies won Best Picture without having a director nomination - Grand Hotel, Driving Miss Daisy and Argo. However, lately, the Academy hasn't felt the need to always give its Best Picture a Best Director Oscar as well. I'd have to say The Shape of Water is the favorite at this point. The Director's Guild Awards and British Academy Awards will be announce before Oscar night, which should confirm or perhaps cloud up the Best Picture race.
     
  12. Phil A

    Phil A Well-Known Member Top Poster

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    Thanks for all the great info. You probably live a few miles away from me at the most.
     
  13. Mike Kelly

    Mike Kelly Active Member

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    Better late than never. Here are my picks in the top six categories

    Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
    Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya.
     
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  14. Carl V

    Carl V Well-Known Member Donor War Zone Member Top Poster

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    enjoy the show
     
  15. Carl V

    Carl V Well-Known Member Donor War Zone Member Top Poster

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    Kobe wins an Oscar for his Basketball film...really?

    Having seen the other nominated short films, I am bewildered.
    we won't even touch upon his past misogynistic past. CJ
    posted a link to that.
     
  16. DYohn

    DYohn Bronze Member Donor Top Poster

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    One Best Picture wrong. Pretty darn good Mike!
     
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  17. Mike Kelly

    Mike Kelly Active Member

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    Thanks David. I went with my favorite, but still have to believe it was a tight race. I hope you all found the thread informative. It seems more and more award groups keep sprouting up. I reported on 46. Talk about overkill. No wonder there's little suspense left at Oscar night. All in all a pretty good year for movies. Let's hope 2018 is just as good. You can remove the sticky whenever you'd like to, CJ
     
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  18. CJ

    CJ Bronze Member Admin War Zone Member Top Poster

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    Mike sincere thanks for posting this again. It doesn't have a ton of responses but it has hundreds of views and I'm sure people found it valuable.

    Thanks!
     

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